David Clapp, senior economist of Recovered Paper at RISI, revealed his expectations for the recovered paper industry in RISI’s most recent quarterly World Pulp & Recovered Paper Forecast, identifying the West as the primary driving force behind the surge in output.

According to the report, the United States’ single largest export is waste paper, sending the majority of it – over nine million tons annually – to China, who is the biggest buyer of recovered fiber in the world and is rapidly increasing their recovered paper mills' capacities to meet the tremendous demand.

Clapp expects that prices for recovered paper will ascend to a new peak in 2009 following a sustained increase in paper and paperboard output and recovered paper consumption. Because of the soaring price of recovered paper, Clapp predicts producers will begin to seek out alternative sources of fiber and invest into virgin (containing no recycled fibers) pulping capacity.

He believes that although recovered paper will still play a dominant role in papermaking, new investments into recovered paper will decelerate while other pulp options are explored. "Pulp sources like bamboo and eucalyptus in South Asia and Latin America and spruce and fir in Russia will be an increasingly attractive alternative to recovered paper as we move through the current decade,” Clapp says.

Clapp's complete forecast and analysis of global recovered paper markets is available in RISI's latest World Pulp & Recovered Paper Forecast.